Will the northern lights be visible tonight?

This page's live verdict answers that from NOAA's real-time feeds — forecast Kp, the solar wind measured at L1 right now, and what that means at your latitude. It changes hour to hour, which is why it's computed live.

What Kp do I need to see the aurora at my latitude?

Roughly: Kp 3–4 for northern-tier US states and central Scandinavia, Kp 5–6 for the Great Lakes and central Europe, Kp 7+ for the mid-latitudes, and Kp 8–9 for the subtropics. The live view does this math for your saved spot.

What time of night is the aurora most likely?

Statistically, the hours around local magnetic midnight — roughly 10 pm to 2 am. Substorms come in cycles, so give a promising night at least one full cycle before quitting.

How do I get alerted before a storm hits?

Free push alerts from the live observatory cover flares, storm levels and solar wind — including a per-latitude alert that fires when the auroral border approaches your sky.

← the live sky · the field guide

AURORA TONIGHT

A live answer to "will I see it tonight?" — built from NOAA's feeds, refreshed every few minutes, with the uncertainty stated. For the full 3D nowcast, the live sky renders these same feeds through the observatory's photo-validated pipeline.

Reading the sky…

Fetching NOAA's real-time feeds. If this doesn't resolve in a few seconds, the feeds may be unreachable from your network — the live view is the fallback.

☁️ Geomagnetics is only half of tonight — the other half is clouds. For US skies, cloud-cover model maps live at seasonmap.io (same workshop, lower altitude).

🔴 watch the live sky 🔔 get push alerts 🌌 how to see it

What the numbers mean at your latitude

Kp is NOAA's 3-hour planetary activity index; the G-scale maps onto it. Rough northern-hemisphere visibility (dark skies and a clear northern horizon assumed — city glow moves every row poleward):

Kp	G-scale	Roughly who can see it
0–2	quiet	Arctic latitudes — Fairbanks, Tromsø, Yellowknife
3–4	active	Northern-tier US and Scotland get a horizon chance; overhead in central Canada and Scandinavia
5	G1	Low on the horizon from the northern US states, Denmark, northern Germany
6	G2	Overhead in southern Canada; visible into the mid-northern US
7	G3	Mid-latitude US (Oregon, Illinois, Pennsylvania) and central Europe
8	G4	Deep into the US and Europe, with real color for many observers
9	G5	Continent-scale — the May 2024 storm drew naked-eye reports from 24.3° magnetic latitude

Moonlight note: a bright display punches through a full moon; faint glows don't.

Why this can't be a promise

Kp is partly a retrospective number. Each value is a 3-hour, planet-wide average: by the time a bin confirms a storm, the best part may already be over, and a violent 25-minute substorm can vanish into an average that looks modest. Use Kp for magnitude, the "next 3-h bin" above for the near term, and for the minute-to-minute sky watch the magnetometers: substorm onsets show up in the AE index before your eyes see the breakup (how substorms work).

Two hard limits. First, Kp forecasts estimate magnitude, not schedule: the sky erupts in substorm cycles, so a quiet 10 pm can become an overhead display at 10:40. Second, the decisive variable — the magnetic field direction inside whatever the sun sent — can't be measured until the plasma passes the L1 monitors, 15–45 minutes before it reaches Earth. No one can promise you an aurora to the hour. What this page can do is tell you when the ingredients are in place, and the alerts can wake you when the sky goes.

Tonight's checklist

Darkness: get away from city glow; find an open northern horizon.
Adaptation: 20–30 minutes without looking at your phone.
Timing: best odds roughly 10 pm–2 am local; give it at least one full substorm cycle before quitting.
Camera: a 3–10 s night-mode exposure pointed north will confirm a faint glow your eyes can't. Full settings — phone and dedicated — in photographing the aurora.
Full guide: how to see the aurora.

Frequently asked questions

Will the northern lights be visible tonight?: This page's live verdict above answers that from NOAA's real-time feeds — forecast Kp, the solar wind measured at L1 right now, and what that means at your latitude. There is no permanent answer: it changes hour to hour, which is why we compute it live instead of writing it here.
What Kp do I need to see the aurora at my latitude?: Roughly: Kp 3–4 for northern-tier US states and central Scandinavia, Kp 5–6 for the Great Lakes and central Europe, Kp 7+ for the mid-latitudes, and Kp 8–9 for the subtropics. The field guide has the full latitude table — and the live view above already does this math for your saved spot.
What time of night is the aurora most likely?: Statistically, the hours around local magnetic midnight — roughly 10 pm to 2 am. Substorms come in cycles, so give a promising night at least one full cycle before quitting.
How do I get alerted before a storm hits?: Free push alerts from the live observatory cover flares, storm levels and solar wind — including a per-latitude alert that fires when the auroral border approaches your sky.

📖 Improve this page — spotted an error, or want a topic covered?

✍️ suggest a correction 💡 request a topic

Aurora, by location: live forecast guides for Minnesota · Michigan · Washington · Maine · Alberta · Ontario · Scotland · Norway · Tasmania · New Zealand — and 30 more on the full location index.

Revisit the great storms: Gannon, May 2024 · October 2024 · November 2025 · St Patrick's 2015 · Halloween 2003 · Carrington 1859 — each with a replay you can stand inside.

By The Space Weather Observatory · checked against the data & methods record · Updated August 21, 2026

the sky · the sun · field guide · data & methods · about · privacy · pro · ☁️ seasonmap · ☕ support